☀️ 7月10日
特朗普政府发布了一份针对中国2000 亿美元商品额外征收10%关税的计划，这项计划会在8 月20 日至23 日举行听证会决定是否最后实施。
关税清单包括数百种食品以及香烟、煤炭、化学制品、轮胎、猫狗粮和包括电视机元件在内等消费者电子产品。
☀️ 7月11日
1️⃣️ 中国取消61.5万吨美大豆订单
截至6月底，中国已经连续3周没有新增采购美国大豆，同期累计取消了61.5万吨美大豆订单
2⃣️ 有分析解释，美国新一轮2000亿美元征税清单，并没有看上去那么可怕
加税产品，打击的力量似乎并未集中在对中国出口影响最大的领域；看起来篇幅极重的食品（包括各类农产品）、纺织品、化学制品等，在中国出口美国的大盘子里所占比例相当有限
3⃣️ 美国国会参议院以 88 : 11 的压倒性表决结果通过了一项针对特朗普政府贸易政策的非约束性提案，要求限制特朗普以国家安全为借口向其他国家加征进口商品关税的总统权力。
.
📈 市场分析：
• 在特朗普发布2000亿美元商品额外征收10%关税的计划后，全球股市没想象中恐慌。
• 加上2⃣️的分析公布后，市场开始反弹，Nasdaq继续创新高。
• 相信在美国国会的提案后，特朗普暂时会收敛。
• 目前市场看起来稳定，暂时不会继续下跌。
⚠️ 至于特朗普的权利会被限制吗❓
要限制总统权力没有那么容易，要参众两院各方势力达成妥协才有可能。
.
🔗 链接:
1) https://cn.reuters.com/article/instant-view-trade-war-usa-china-0711-we-idCNKBS1K1085
2) http://laoyaoba.com/ss6/html/57/n-679257.html
3) http://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2018-07/11/c_1123112949.htm
4) http://blog.dwnews.com/post-1039613.html
Showing posts with label Market Outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Outlook. Show all posts
Friday, 13 July 2018
Friday, 6 July 2018
中美贸易战 Round One
1) 美国海关官员开始对中国进口商品（总值340亿美元）加征25%的关税，产品涵盖农耕犁到半导体和飞机零部件。
2) 中国商务部也随即宣布，对总值340亿美元的货品加征关税，总共545项商品，当中包挂农产品，水产，汽车等物品。
2) 中国商务部也随即宣布，对总值340亿美元的货品加征关税，总共545项商品，当中包挂农产品，水产，汽车等物品。
Friday, 4 September 2015
Overall Market Outlook (05th September 2015)
Crude Oil prices remained bearish as US reported a rise in US crude stocks by 4.7 million barrels in the week, the biggest one-week rise since April.
As the fundamental for crude oil is still weak, the price is expected to go down further for last quarter of 2015.
DJIA
A sharp fall in DJIA yesterday mainly due to the uncertainties of the rate increase by Fed. Investors remained concern on the outlook of interest rates after US job data had been reported.
US unemployment rate fells to seven year low which is a good news, however, the nonform payrolls drops significantly.
From my view of market outlook as at today, Fed is unlikely to increase their rates due to the disappointing nonfarm payroll data which is expected to increase more. This shows that US itself is "not ready" for the rate increase by Fed in September & it would leads to a negative impact on US's economy. Another point that Fed is unlikely to increase rate is due to the rapid slowing down of China's economy.
Meanwhile, Malaysia reported a good news yesterday that it's foreign reserves increases slightly from USD 94.5 to USD 94.7. It is reported that the reserves are sufficient to finance 7.4 months of retained imports, and are 1.0 times the short term external debt. Another good news is that the export data for July increased at about 3.5%, which is better than forecast 3.2 %, mainly due to the weaker commodity price & softening of MYR.
However, MYR hits as high as RM 4.31 against USD as at today, the depreciation of MYR is still the main factor that leads to continuous recession of Malaysia's economy.
Feel free to comment :)
As the fundamental for crude oil is still weak, the price is expected to go down further for last quarter of 2015.
DJIA
A sharp fall in DJIA yesterday mainly due to the uncertainties of the rate increase by Fed. Investors remained concern on the outlook of interest rates after US job data had been reported.
US unemployment rate fells to seven year low which is a good news, however, the nonform payrolls drops significantly.
From my view of market outlook as at today, Fed is unlikely to increase their rates due to the disappointing nonfarm payroll data which is expected to increase more. This shows that US itself is "not ready" for the rate increase by Fed in September & it would leads to a negative impact on US's economy. Another point that Fed is unlikely to increase rate is due to the rapid slowing down of China's economy.
Meanwhile, Malaysia reported a good news yesterday that it's foreign reserves increases slightly from USD 94.5 to USD 94.7. It is reported that the reserves are sufficient to finance 7.4 months of retained imports, and are 1.0 times the short term external debt. Another good news is that the export data for July increased at about 3.5%, which is better than forecast 3.2 %, mainly due to the weaker commodity price & softening of MYR.
However, MYR hits as high as RM 4.31 against USD as at today, the depreciation of MYR is still the main factor that leads to continuous recession of Malaysia's economy.
Feel free to comment :)
Tuesday, 1 September 2015
KLCI Market Outlook (01st September 2015)
This will be my first sharing of my thought towards KLCI as at today.
The chart above showed KLCI for 2 weeks.
Based on Daily Trading Participants data, the local institutions are the only net buyers from 24/08/2015 until 27/08/2015.
This shows that there is a very huge buying support by local institutions within last week, however, the selling by local institutions is also high. Therefore, it is quite obvious that the KLCI is "artificially" supported!
Although the crude oil price rose to USD 48 per barrel (as at today), KLCI doesn't seem quite optimistic for the last quarter of year 2015. A lot shared that it will be a "bull trap" for the temporary hike of KLCI within this few weeks. It will be like the calm before the storm.
From my opinion, this is mainly due to the politics scandals & the weakening of MYR which lost investor's confidence towards Bursa Malaysia.
There is a lot of sharing that US market is a bubble & definitely will burst some day, that will be the time where investors will head back to Asia market, where the time bear market ends in KLCI
However, I would like to say that investors will not necessary choose Malaysia as their investment choice unless the issues mentioned can be solved by that time.
As a conclusion, my view towards KLCI market is not that optimistic at this moment.
The chart above showed KLCI for 2 weeks.
Based on Daily Trading Participants data, the local institutions are the only net buyers from 24/08/2015 until 27/08/2015.
This shows that there is a very huge buying support by local institutions within last week, however, the selling by local institutions is also high. Therefore, it is quite obvious that the KLCI is "artificially" supported!
Although the crude oil price rose to USD 48 per barrel (as at today), KLCI doesn't seem quite optimistic for the last quarter of year 2015. A lot shared that it will be a "bull trap" for the temporary hike of KLCI within this few weeks. It will be like the calm before the storm.
From my opinion, this is mainly due to the politics scandals & the weakening of MYR which lost investor's confidence towards Bursa Malaysia.
There is a lot of sharing that US market is a bubble & definitely will burst some day, that will be the time where investors will head back to Asia market, where the time bear market ends in KLCI
However, I would like to say that investors will not necessary choose Malaysia as their investment choice unless the issues mentioned can be solved by that time.
As a conclusion, my view towards KLCI market is not that optimistic at this moment.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)