在股市常常赚少赔多?

要赚钱，先要建立好正确的投资观念。
以下是笔者和身边股友的亲身经历，希望借此记录下来可以提醒自己和大家。

1. 股市下跌不需要任何理由

当股市下跌，很多人都会不自主的去找下跌的理由。但是股市下跌的原因太多了，变数无限大。如果你给下跌找理由，那个理由将会影响你的决定。比如说，今天股市下跌可能是因为新政府嘛(纯属例子)，那我再给它几天机会看看。这样的话也许一开始你只赔10%，却因为给它机会赔了30-50%，这个时候就真的砍不下去了。

👉 与其帮股市找下跌原因，不如跌破停损就出场就对了。

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2. 顺着你的个性去操作股票

巴菲特和索罗斯的操作法都不一样，但是一样都可以赚钱。你用他们的操作法却未必赚钱，为什么呢？因为那个是适合他们自己的操作法，未必适合你。不要做与你的个性相反的操作，比如说你是不能承担高风险的，但是你去操作高风险的股或是操作涡轮，那不赔钱才怪。

👉 适合自己的操作法才是最好的。

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3. 进场动机=出场动机

你买入这只股票的最原始动机将会是你的出场动机。假设你是因为技术面想抓反弹而入场，但是后来不出场的动机是因为基本面，这样的心态会导致你每次操作赚少赔多。

👉 在这里强调你可以配合技术面+基本面来操作，最重要的是你的动机要清晰。

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4. 不要乱解释巴菲特的话 – 别人贪婪我恐惧，别人恐惧我贪婪

巴菲特说过最有名的一句话就是 “别人贪婪我恐惧，别人恐惧我贪婪“。当然很多人都把他的意思扭曲了。股市一下跌就乱套这句话，冲入场买股。假如熊市真的来，你的子弹不仅用完了，还得住高级套房啊。买股不是随随便便一下跌就进场，要买也要找一个即合理又低风险的入场点。

👉 投资和人生一样，草率没计划成不了大事。

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5. 不要靠“感觉”

我发现很多股友都很喜欢“靠感觉”。例如：我“感觉”这只股已经很低了，我“感觉”这只股很好啊。天啊，把股市当成赌场会倾家荡产的啊！天下没有坐着就可以发达的事，要投资少不了做功课。时代这么发达，很多资料只要一上网搜就有了。很多资深的前辈都也乐意在网上分享自己的功课。就算不会“做功课”，也可以“抄功课”，绝对绝对不要给自己“靠感觉”的借口。而且有时你会发现，他人看好的股未必真的很好，也未必是适合你操作的股。
另一方面，很多人会对他们看好的股有”感觉“。股市和感情是两回事，股市翻脸是不认人，是无情的。冷眼有说过，”若你的投资目标已达成，就好像火车到站，就应下车，不可恋栈。“

👉 千万不要跟股票谈恋爱！

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6. 别把亏钱或赚钱看得太重

很多人会对自己设下投资目标，比如每年10-20%的回酬。设下目标不是不好，而是会无形中给自己设下局限。比如说头一年市场好你就真的赚了20%回酬，但是第二年市场不好你把赚到的都倒亏了；或是下一年市场超牛，你却在赚到20%就收手了。笔者认为股市新手应该先探索不同的操作法，把焦点放在自己的操作法和心态是否正确，而不是能”赚”多少。当你在操作上有一定的能力时才设下自己的投资目标也不迟。当然，在股市亏钱是很正常的，无需自责伤心。但前提是你必须从每次的亏损反省自己的错误。

👉 有些人投资了30年还在赔钱；有些人投资2年就已经在赚钱了。差别在于你是否会学教训。

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7. 相信自己，但不要过分自信

做任何事情都一样，就是要相信自己。很多时候你明明看好一只股，但是因为其他股友点评说这只股不好让你没信心操作。后来发现你的看法是对的，但是没下场操作又如何？千万不要让其他人告诉你投资应该是”这样“或”那样“，别让他人为你设下一个框框。在股市，应该尝试相信自己靠自己去操作，赢了是收获，错了更是大丰收，因为这么可贵的经验是用金钱买不到的。
相反的，过分的自信在股市是最致命的，凡事都要留一线，因为市场是没有100%的。

👉 Knowing & Doing is different.

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最后，笔者给大家的一个小小建议 - 写投资记录📖

人是很善忘的。这次做错了，下次可能会忘记然后重犯。笔者建议大家把每次的交易都记录下来。例如：你今天看好这只股是什么原因？打算卖掉又是因为什么原因呢？把你看法，操作法，心态，成功和失败的交易统统都记录下来，你会看到你在股市成长的过程。也许你每次亏钱的原因就出现在不懂得停损，那就设停损就好了；或是你会发现你每次都会买在靠近低点，就维持这个好习惯。这个记录你做久了，就是你专属的一份有价值的投资报告。

LKL International (0182)

LKL International (0182)
Sector: Healthcare

Company Background:
1) Largest manufacturer of medical/healthcare beds, peripheral and accessories in Malaysia.
2) Customers: Hospitals & Medical centres.
3) Revenue contributed by business segment (2017 VS 2016)
.   a) Manufacturing of Medical & Healthcare beds (28% VS 40%)
.   b) Manufacturing of Peripherals and Accessories (50% VS 41%)
.   c) Trading of Peripherals and Accessories (22% VS 19%)
4) Revenue contributed by geographical segment
.   a) Based on 3Q18 report – Local sales (66.8%) VS export sales (33.2%)
.   b) Export sales is mainly in Asia countries.
.   c) LKL sold to more than 30 countries since 2000
.   d) LKL successfully registered their operations with US FDA in May 2017, which allows LKL to start penetrate into US market, & also improve credibility of their products.

Financial highlights base on 3Q18 (latest):
1) Revenue (3Q18 VS 2Q18) increased from RM7.166mil to RM10.246 mil, however cost of sales also increased from RM 4.135mil to RM 6.086 mil. This is due to rising of raw material prices.
2) Profit before tax (3Q18 VS 2Q18) increased from RM 287K to RM 1.064mil. This is due to the group has secured few large orders of medical beds from overseas customer. However the group said that their operating cost is high this quarter associated with the Group’s new subsidiary.
3) LKL looks forward to strengthen the performance of distributing Nihon Kohden high value medical devices. (more information under Growth factor (1))
4) Group expected the performance to be challenging.

Shareholding:
1) LKL was co-founded by Mr Lim Kon Lian (Husband) & Mok Mei Lan (Wife).
2) Board of directors & their children (Elaine Lim Sin Yee & Lim Pak Hong) holds 73.9% of the total shares.
3) Another non-executive director Tan Chuan Hock holds 6.71% of the shares.
4) Their independent non-executive chairman – Tan Sri Datuk Adzmi Bin Abdul Wahab only holds 0.07% of the shares.

Growth factors:
1) LKL starts to distribute “Nihon Kohden” brand of products in 1Q18 for a minimum period of 3 years through its subsidiaries’ JV – TMI Medik Group Sdn. Bhd. (TMG). Nihon Kohden is Japan's leading maker of EEG, patient monitors, AED, and medical electronic equipment.
2) In 4Q17, LKL completed acquisition of 11,135 SQ freehold land which is located adjacent to their current manufacturing plant in Seri Kembangan, Selangor. The factory is currently undertaking renovation works, targeted to complete in 2Q18 which will increase storage capacity & accommodate new machine installations in future.
3) In 3Q17, LKL Installed new fully automated Computer Numeric Control (CNC) punching machine (TruPunch 2000) which is intended to increase operational efficiency and reduce dependency on manual labour. Expected to be operational in 2Q18. (benefits 3a & 3b)

Risks:
1) Forex Risks – SGD & USD.
    Company will consider to hedge if the factors become substantial
2) Raw material risks – electrical components and hydraulic parts
    Company might face losses if it is unable to pass on higher costs to customers.
3) Intense competition – keener competition from other industry players (foreign brands) which may negatively impact on margins
    Company continues to invest in R&D, automation & new manufacturing technology.

Notes:
1) According to a friend of mine who is in this industry, LKL products' pricing is at lower range in the market hence it is more popular for private sector while Government sector is more competitive. (This is also a reason that LKL’s margin is low).
2) High raw material cost is negatively impacting on LKL's margins.
3) No catalyst at this moment.

Technical analysis:
The chart has yet to bottomed, suggest to wait for a trend reversal signal.

DISCLAIMER: This is not a call buy or call sell recommendation, this post is intended for learning and educational purposes only, please trade at your own risk.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZO5JnJbB7w

致正在为梦想努力奋斗的你

相信每个人都有自己想要走的路，一个与自己的兴趣或梦想相关的路。热诚满满的自己，用很多时间和心思去做这件事，觉得这一切都是值得的，而且特别开心特别有成就感。

但是走着走着，开始觉得这条路好像没有一开始的简单和顺利。到了一个阶段，面对的却是无数次的失败，怎么做也不对。甚至开始迷茫，开始对自己没信心，开始怀疑自己走的这条路是否适合自己。

其实，这条路也是很多人都在向往的路。很多人也是在走着这条路。但是有些人到迷茫阶段就放弃了。这个阶段，其实就是一个最大的转折点。自己是否真的可以克服自己，面对失败，战胜种种挑战。

每一条通往梦想的路，都不是那么简单的。
如果简单的话，相信大把人就涌进这条路了。
所以往往能够坚持到最后的都寥寥无几。
但是坚持到最后的肯定是赢家。

赢在自己没有放弃过自己的梦想。
赢在战胜自己的恐惧勇于面对一切。
赢在无论是什么时候都相信自己。

但是在通往梦想的你，难免会累，难免会迷茫，难免会在矛盾中挣扎。
所以，在走着这条路的你，
偶尔也要休息，
偶尔也要整理自己的思绪，
偶尔抬头看看身边的风景，
才不会错过人生更多美好的事情。🌈

在人生的道路上，难免会遇到困难和挫折
即使跌倒一百次，也不要失去信心
有毅力就会战胜困难，战胜自己 💪

Negative Goodwill 负商誉

Negative Goodwill （负商誉）

大红花的季报一出炉，大家都很好奇什么是 “Negative Goodwill - 负商誉”，笔者也不例外。请教了身边一些高手后大概了解了。笔者就用最简单的方式来跟大家解释吧。

先来说说 Goodwill。

当一家公司收购一个资产时，通常都会以比NTA高的价格来收购，这个差价就叫做 “Goodwill”。报帐时会出现在Goodwill of Acquisition。

那么Negative Goodwill是什么呢？

简单来说就是一个公司收购的资产比NTA便宜，比如说一个值RM1mil的资产，被收购价是RM500k，那么这就必须视为Negative Goodwill。但是Negative Goodwill只是账目上的一次性盈利，并非运营盈利 (Operating income)。

为什么会出现像这种可以捡到便宜的情况呢？

通常在一个行业低迷的时候，奄奄一息的小公司已经没有能力经营下去，便会卖掉资产。有能力大公司趁机收购这些资产。这就是为什么M&A (Merger & Acquisition)的活动在经济低迷时比较活跃。
一个行业在低迷的时候，资产估值会被低估。当经济好转时，资产将被重估，就会出现以上这种情况了。

Back after years

Hi everyone, I am back after years. It has been around 3 years ago since my first post. (OMG!)
I treat this platform as a sharing of information hence hereby to disclaim that whatever that is shared here is just for educational purpose and is not for buy call. Please consult your own remisier/dealers or do your own homework before decide to buy / sell.

P/S: Please ignore my previous posts. 😅😅

Thanks & happy investing!😊

CSE Global Limited (544.SI)

CSE GLOBAL LIMITED (544.SI)
Sector: O&G

Company Background:
1) Leading systems integrator, focusing on the provision and installation of a variety of control systems as well as turnkey telecommunication network and security solutions with an international presence in US, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East & Africa regions.
2) Customer base: Oil and gas, infrastructure and mining industries.
3) Revenue contribution by geographical segment – Americas 57%, Asia Pacific 36% & Europe/Middle East/Africa 7%
4) Revenue contribution by industry segment – Oil and gas 68% (50% onshore & 50% offshore), Infrastructure 25% & Mining 7%

Acquisition activities (6 acquisitions at SGD 23 million since 2016):
1) CC American Oilfield – manufacturing and repairing pressure vessels for wellhead oil & gas production in Corpus, Christie, Texas & USA
2) Mobile Masters – delivering two-way radio communication systems and infrastructures in Western Australia
3) Tetracom – delivering two-way radio communication systems and infrastructures in South Australia
4) Ezi Communications – provision of two-way radio communication system in Queensland, Australia
5) Gulf Coast Power & Control of Louisiana – provision of equipment & services for the midstream and downstream O&G industry, mainly Gulf Coast of USA
6) Combined Communication Solutions – provision of two-way radio communication system in Darwin, Australia

Financial highlights (2017 VS 2016):
1) Revenue from America ⬆️ by 30%, Middle East ⬇️ by 43%
2) Revenue from Infrastructure ⬆️ by 55%
3) ⬆️ in revenue but lower profitability due to lower gross margins from oil and gas projects.
4) Dividend – Dividend maintained at 2.75c (2.25c at downturn FY 2016)
5) Board fees has ⬇️ 17% over 3 years (WOW! 😱)
6) Maintained positive operating cashflow even after several acquisition activities was took place

Financial highlights (2018 Q1):
1) Outstanding order book stands at SGD 148.6 million as at Q12018.
2) New orders received decreased by 41.5% due to slow season (Q1 is usually slow) as claimed.

Other Information:
1) Top 20 shareholders holds around 74.71% of the shares.
2) Latest annual report cover’s slogan was “Ready to ride”, “Gathering momentum”. It seems that their management is confident in coming year performance.

Prospect:
Going forward, CSE will continue to improve the effectiveness of its business through
1) Revitalizing its existing solutions and services, improving delivery and new applications,
2) Adding new solutions and services,
3) Retaining and maintaining existing customer relationships,
4) Adding new customers, and
5) Cost control and cash generation
It will continue to explore acquisition opportunities to support its long term sustainable growth objectives & also explore available market opportunities with Serba Dinamik.

Potential Risks:
1) Foreign currency risk – from sales & purchase - USD, GBP, EUR, AUD. Their net investments in foreign subsidiaries are not hedged as the currency positions in respective countries is long-term.
USD – 50% (Benefit from USD weakening)
AUD - 30% (Benefit from AUD weakening)
Other – 20%
2) Acquisition risk - Change in global economic events which is unfavorable (to be monitor)
3) Oil price - indirectly affect CSE as when oil price is unfavorable, O&G customers tends to focus on cost-cuttings

Notes:
1) The group claimed that they have several large projects that will reach billing milestone in Q2 & Q3 2018.
2) With current outstanding order book at PE 8 - 10, the fair value of this stock is around S$0.46 – 0.56. It was traded at S$0.49 as per 25/05/2018’s closing.
However, the future growth of this company can be monitored as the acquisitions was just take place.
3) Serba Dinamik Bhd acquired 24.8% stake in CSE Global.

Disclaimer: Just for sharing purpose. Not buy call.

You may refer to my previous post on Serba Dinamik here: https://www.facebook.com/V.Invest.Together/posts/1974388769543447

Technical Analysis: https://www.facebook.com/V.Invest.Together/posts/1974877639494560

Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd (5279)

SERBA DINAMIK HOLDINGS BHD (5279)
Sector: O&G

Company Background:
1) Providing engineering solutions to the Oil and Gas & power generation industries with operational facilities in Malaysia, Indonesia, UAE, Bahrain & UK
2) Engineering solutions – O&M (Operations and Maintenance), EPCC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Comissioning) & other product and services (compressed natural gas, CNG in Indonesia)
a) O&M – MRO services (Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul) for rotating equipment used in the energy industry. IRM services (Inspection, Repair and Maintenance) for steam boilers
3) Customer base – O&G operators, Gas processors and oil refineries, petrochemical manufacturers, engineering companies and contractors, independent power producers
4) Industries served – O&G Upstream (Production), O&G Downstream (Processing, refining and manufacturing) and Power Generation
5) listed in Bursa on 08 Feb 2017

Projects:
During FYE2017, Serbadk secured 34 additional contracts (non O&G) with an estimated value of approximately RM2.8 billion. Serbadk’s total order book value stands at approximately RM6.0 billion with an average contract duration of 3-5 years.
Contribution in Revenue:
1) O&M – 86%
2) EPCC – 13%
3) Others – 1%

Potential risks:
1) Fluctuation of Oil price - 79.55% of revenue is from O&G clients. Changes in oil price have minimal implication on the company, as long as the production platforms continue production and where maintenance contracts will be utilised
2) Forex risk - exposed to foreign currency risk on sales, purchases and borrowings. Serbadk maintained their cash inflow in a USD denominated bank account which provides natural foreign currency hedge
3) Oversea operational risk – Changes in political & economic factors. Serbadk has expanded their operations across 11 countries and 5 main regions to reduce their exposure to one individual country or region.

Other:
1) About 83.72% of the shares was hold by Top 30 shareholder. Board of director itself holds about 60% of the shares.
2) Acquired 24.8% stake in CSE Global which is listed in SGX. This acquisition will expand Serbadk’s geographical footprint given CSE’s global presence in more than 20 countries, including the USA, Mexico, Australia and New Zealand. 57% of its FY17 revenue was derived from the Americas region, followed by Asia Pacific (37%). Meanwhile, it may also strengthen Serbadk’s capability in IT-related services by potentially integrating CSE’s various IT solution platforms, which include systems automation, integration and packages.

Prospect:
Currently, Serbadk are targeting the Power Generation, Water Treatment and Utilities sectors. As of 31 December 2017, they secured over RM1.74 billion worth of non Oil & Gas related projects mainly focused on the hydro-power generation and water treatment sectors.

Notes:
1) Board of directors is very aggressive in expanding. They also have great vision in the growth of different industries in different countries that allows them to take advantage prior to other competitors. For example,
Malaysia – growing in renewable energy
Indonesia – growing in power generation
Middle East – shifting focus from upstream sector to downstream

Disclaimer: Just for sharing purpose. Not buy call.